US sanctions on Iran renewed without Obama’s signature 

WASHINGTON: The renewal of the US Iran Sanctions Act (ISA) went into effect Thursday despite a symbolic non-signature move by President Barack Obama, allowing the bill to become law without marking his name or further antagonizing Iran, six weeks before leaving office.

The ISA had cleared Congress overwhelmingly (419-1 in the House, 99-0 in the Senate) in early December, renewing 10 years of US restrictions on Iran’s missile program and longstanding sanctions that are unrelated to nuclear activity. However, the law also includes a “snapback” measure that would permit the US president to re-impose sanctions if Iran violates the nuclear deal, signed in July 2015.

Obama’s non-signature
Obama’s non-signature instead of blockage or approval on a Congressional bill is a first in his presidency, and is a reversal of the expectations set by the White House that the 44th president would sign the bill instead of allowing it to become law by virtue of the deadline expiring Thursday at midnight.
Obama’s non-signature serves two purposes, according to Matthew McInnis, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Primarily, Obama “didn’t think the sanctions renewal was necessary, but that also was not a technical violation of the deal,” McInnis told Arab News.
The second purpose was for the president to stay on the sidelines, said McInnis, and “in letting the ISA become law without feeding into any escalation with Iran before (his successor Donald) Trump takes office” on Jan. 20.
The White House reiterated in its statement that renewing the ISA, which predates the nuclear deal, “does not affect in any way our ability to fulfill our commitments in the JCPOA,” the acronym used for the deal.
Perry Cammack, a fellow in the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, sees “symbolic value in Obama’s declining to sign the bill, but the end result is the same.” Cammack reads the Congressional and White House actions as “playing out exactly according to the script,” with sanctions renewed despite Iran’s call on Obama to block the bill.

Impact on Trump and the deal
Republican members of Congress who strongly supported the renewal of the ISA welcomed its becoming law, partly due to the “snapback” power it gives the presidency to reinstate sanctions on Iran if it violates the deal.
“This law ensures the US retains its ability to hold the regime accountable,” House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce told the Wall Street Journal. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker struck a similar tone in a statement, saying the renewal of the sanctions law “ensures President-elect Trump and his administration have the tools necessary to push back against the regime’s hostile actions.”
While there are concerns among Iran-watchers that the passage of the law could endanger the nuclear deal, Cammack does not foresee such an outcome in the near term. While Iran “will protest that this is a violation of the nuclear agreement, it has been clear since before the nuclear agreement was finalized in July 2015 that Congress would renew sanctions before they expired at the end of 2016,” he told Arab News.
McInnis agrees that although “there is little question that the Trump administration will look to tighten the enforcement of the deal and that Iran will attempt to retaliate through various provocations, it is unclear how far either side is willing to go yet.”
Cammack anticipates that the “Iran deal will certainly be under more pressure in a Trump administration,” but he cautions “that it is very unlikely that Trump will deliberately abrogate the agreement.”
There is “a real possibility of the agreement gradually coming apart over time,” Cammack said, particularly if Trump “increases efforts to contain Iran’s regional interference” –something he has pledged to do throughout the campaign. McInnis sees more benefits for Iran in keeping the deal, but also points to “many variables” at play, including Russia’s role and economic openness that followed the deal.
For now, the renewal of US sanctions despite Obama’s signature abstention lays the ground for gradual escalation on Iran, backed by both parties in Congress and by Trump, but without upending the nuclear deal.

source arabnews